{"id":907,"date":"2020-09-10T12:21:36","date_gmt":"2020-09-10T02:21:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.pbw.id.au\/blog\/?p=907"},"modified":"2021-07-27T16:32:30","modified_gmt":"2021-07-27T06:32:30","slug":"endemic-pandemic-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2020\/09\/endemic-pandemic-panic\/","title":{"rendered":"Endemic Pandemic Panic"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

[A version with slight differences was published 27th April, 2020 on Quadrant Online QED<\/a>.]<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/p>\r\n

The previous \u201cpandemic\u201d, commonly know as Swine Flu, was caused by a type of Influenza virus known as H1N1. Spanish Flu was also caused by an H1N1 variant. The disease was first detected in Mexico in 2009, and initial reports gave what was eventually seen to be an exaggerated view of the morbidity and mortality of the disease, but, as a paper on the response of Australian emergency departments put it, [a]lthough the severity was subsequently shown to be of less concern, the initial response was, and <\/em>necessarily<\/em><\/strong> had to be, based on the information available at the time.<\/em> That assumption is invalid, for reasons to be outlined. Nonetheless, the response to that pandemic was somnolent compared to our betters\u2019 instituting a totalitarian state (with a sunset clause) just 10 years later.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n\r\n

When a new disease strikes, it is necessarily<\/em> the most severe cases that draw attention. Consider, for example, all of the upper respiratory tract and cold-like infections that sweep through the population regularly. Only researchers with a particular interest in obscure viruses would even bother to isolate the agent of these ailments. Assume that a new disease appears, and that in the small population in which it manifests there is a range of morbidities from life-threatening to barely noticeable. Members of the medical profession will rapidly become aware of the severe cases, but will have no awareness at all of the mild ones. Until accurate tests for infection are developed, they will have no way of knowing what the contagiousness, the range of morbidities, or the fatality rate are. The information available at the time<\/em> will necessarily<\/em> be skewed to the point that almost any scenario for the progress of the disease can be imagined, and none can be asserted with any confidence.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

There has not been, nor will there ever be, a disease whose infectiousness, morbidity and mortality are identical across any population sample you care to draw. The most critical shortage in any epidemic or pandemic is information. So the first order of business for researchers is a reliable test. Once the test is available, the first portion should be reserved for frequent testing of pre-selected sample populations, both from communities in which the virus is active, and from those which have not yet, to anyone\u2019s knowledge, been exposed, but are expected to be. These cohorts must be tested frequently \u2013 at least weekly. I believe that such studies are underway in a number of countries. If they are happening in Australia, they are being done quietly. According to Worldometer, Australia has performed 491,391 tests, a rate of 19,270 per million of population. By comparison, Israel\u2019s rate is 34,971, Portugal\u2019s 30,967, and Germany\u2019s 24,738, Holland\u2019s 10,913 and the U.K.\u2019s 9,016.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Had a portion of our testing been dedicated from the beginning to the sort of study proposed here, we would by now have a compelling picture of the reality of SARS-CoV-2. I would, I expect, demolish the rationale of the lockdowns. Such a picture is emerging, but not systematically. It arises from discovering, when particular small populations are tested en masse,<\/em> that most cases are mild or asymptomatic. Absurdly, these revelations were used as further justification for lockdowns, rather than as what they were \u2013 indicators of the relative mildness of the disease.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

The largest question that arises from all of this, of even more concern than the incompetence of our public health officialdom, is how we have come to this pass. Should anyone doubt the downward spiral of Western polities, he should consider the order of magnitude difference in the response to SARS-CoV-2 from that to H1N1, accompanied as it was by the same misinformation, a mere 10 years ago. Talk about the ANZAC spirit.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Lest we forget.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[A version with slight differences was published 27th April, 2020 on Quadrant Online QED.] The previous \u201cpandemic\u201d, commonly know as Swine Flu, was caused by a type of Influenza virus known as H1N1. Spanish Flu was also caused by an H1N1 variant. The disease was first detected in Mexico in 2009, and initial reports gave … Continue reading “Endemic Pandemic Panic”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[52,57,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-law","category-quadrant","category-culture"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8SCfl-eD","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1076,"url":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2022\/08\/the-forgotten-vaccine\/","url_meta":{"origin":907,"position":0},"title":"The Forgotten Vaccine","author":"Me","date":"Fri 12th Aug '22","format":"video","excerpt":"This article was published in Quadrant Online on 14th September, 2021. A paywalled article in the BMJ begins, \u2026the US National Institutes of Health infectious diseases chief, Anthony Fauci, appeared on YouTube to reassure Americans about the safety of the\u2026vaccine. \u201cThe track record for serious adverse events is very good.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Covid-19"","block_context":{"text":"Covid-19","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/category\/culture\/covid-19\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":726,"url":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2019\/05\/men-are-mortal%ef%bb%bf\/","url_meta":{"origin":907,"position":1},"title":"Men Are Mortal\ufeff","author":"admin","date":"Mon 6th May '19","format":false,"excerpt":"[First published in Quadrant Online as \u2018Slut-Shamed\u2019 Victimhood\u2019s Loose Logic] Men are mortal. ScoMo is a man. Therefore, ScoMo is mortal. Is there anything wrong with this argument?\u00a0 A stickler for logical forms would insist that the first premiss should be All men are mortal.\u00a0 Fair enough.\u00a0 But if you\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/category\/culture\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":731,"url":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2019\/05\/men-improved\/","url_meta":{"origin":907,"position":2},"title":"Men, Improved","author":"admin","date":"Mon 6th May '19","format":false,"excerpt":"[First published in Quadrant Online as Gender Quotas, Merit and Faux Equality.] Since the outbreak of #metoo hashtagging in the Federal parliamentary Liberal Party, Peta Credlin (among others) has been promoting targets for Liberal women in Parliament.\u00a0 Simultaneously, she decries quotas as promoted by, for example, the Labor Party.\u00a0 Women,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/category\/culture\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":882,"url":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2020\/07\/black-lies-matter\/","url_meta":{"origin":907,"position":3},"title":"Black Lies Matter","author":"admin","date":"Wed 1st Jul '20","format":false,"excerpt":"First written 11th June 2020. Submitted unsuccessfully to Quadrant and Catallaxy Files. Black Lives Matter has its own website. That\u2019s no surprise. The About page summarises BLM (Emphasis mine.) #BlackLivesMatter was founded in 2013 in response to the acquittal of Trayvon Martin\u2019s murderer. Black Lives Matter Foundation, Inc is a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/category\/culture\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1204,"url":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2024\/01\/in-her-lane\/","url_meta":{"origin":907,"position":4},"title":"In Her Lane","author":"Me","date":"Wed 31st Jan '24","format":false,"excerpt":"First published in Quadrant Online on 10th November, 2023 as The Language and Logic of Sedition Whether she was aware of the threat from early on in the campaign, or only fully realised its extent in conducting the post-mortem, Janet Albrechtsen exposed the wound in her article entitled Radical Idea\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Law"","block_context":{"text":"Law","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/category\/culture\/law\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1087,"url":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2022\/08\/its-a-vaccine-jim-but-not-as-we-know-it\/","url_meta":{"origin":907,"position":5},"title":"It’s a Vaccine, Jim, But Not As We Know It.","author":"Me","date":"Mon 15th Aug '22","format":false,"excerpt":"Published at NewCatallaxy blog on 20th September, 2021. Who knew the term \"non-sterilising vaccine\" six months ago? If you did not, you are in plentiful company. Maybe the woke young, who know everything, knew about it, but for oldies like me, a vaccine was a vaccine was a vaccine. It\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Covid-19"","block_context":{"text":"Covid-19","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/category\/culture\/covid-19\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=907"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/907\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":911,"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/907\/revisions\/911"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}