{"id":1119,"date":"2023-05-17T22:29:10","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T12:29:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/?p=1119"},"modified":"2023-08-20T15:03:31","modified_gmt":"2023-08-20T05:03:31","slug":"balloonacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pbw.id.au\/blog\/2023\/05\/balloonacy\/","title":{"rendered":"Balloonacy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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First published at New Catallaxy blog, 18 February, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

You will remember THE Chinese Spy Balloon. The big white one with the dangly bits. It was a remarkably capable balloon<\/a>, as you would expect from a spy balloon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the balloon was able to linger in the winds over specific areas.
\u201cWe saw it do that. It loitered over certain sites. It went left, right. We saw it maneuver inside the jet stream. That\u2019s how it was operating,\u201d the official said, adding that the craft had propellers and rudders.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Writers in an Aviation Week article<\/a> voiced what most people who had seen the photos were thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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[I]mages of the latest balloon [were] captured by photographers on the ground with telephoto zoom lenses\u2026Such long-distance visual evidence contrasted with remarks by John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman. \u201cIt had propellers,\u201d Kirby says. \u201cIt had a rudder, if you will, to allow it to change direction.\u201d Civilian photos provided no signs of a rudder aboard the balloon, and it is not clear how such a control surface would help steer a spherical, slow-speed object. Kirby also may have been speaking metaphorically about a rudder.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

A metaphorical<\/em> rudder would certainly be a ground-breaker for balloon technology, but no more so than metaphorical<\/em> propellors. The same article informs us that \u201ca pattern has developed of Chinese spy flights by slow-moving high-altitude balloons, which had gone apparently undetected by U.S. surveillance systems.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cI will tell you that we did not detect those threats, and that\u2019s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out,\u201d [General Glen] VanHerck [head of North American Aerospace Defense Command] says.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

You know, Glen, this domain awareness gap<\/em> is not a good look, especially as Karine and the \u201cintelligence community\u201d were already on top of this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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[T]he intelligence community kept track of China\u2019s spying balloon campaign in other parts of the world. Congress was briefed about the program in August, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre says.
\u201cThere has been a program that has been in effect,\u201d Jean-Pierre adds. \u201cWe have kept Congress abreast on that. But I don\u2019t have anything more to say or to share.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Fair enough. It is<\/em> a secret, after all. Especially from North American Aerospace Defense Command. But Glen\u2019s boys, of whom he is incredibly proud, did<\/em> splash the balloon. Sighs of relief all round. But it wasn\u2019t over yet. On Friday the 10th, another object was spotted over Alaska.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cIt was difficult for the pilots to glean a whole lot of information,\u201d [John Kirby] said, adding, \u201cThere was a limit to how much they could divine\u201d\u2026 Fighter aircraft first saw it late Thursday night, it was a small object, and they were flying at high speed\u2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This one was only the size of a small car, and was at mere 40,000 feet. A U.S. official described it as \u201ccylindrical and silver-ish grey.\u201d Cylindrical? Was there, somewhere along the chain of misinformation, a stenographer who did not know the difference between spherical<\/em> and cylindrical<\/em>? Divination\u2019s not what it\u2019s cracked up to be. Ask King Saul. In the event, to an anxious public\u2019s great relief, it was shot down near Deadhorse, Alaska. I kid you not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the left, we see the location of this wonderfully-named, but unincorporated, township. On the right is an image from SondeHub<\/a>, a site that tracks radiosonde launches and returns worldwide. The black circles are regular launch sites. Note the one right at the tippy-top of Alaska. That\u2019s the airport at a place called Barrow. Launches occur every six hours, starting at midnight UTC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a weather balloon being launched in Phoenix. Attached to he balloon is the radiosonde transmitter which measures and reports, at least, pressure, temperature and humidity. There\u2019s usually a parachute inside the balloon. It ascends gradually to about 28km, expanding as pressure decreases, until the balloon bursts. By then it will be 5m or more in diameter, depending on the balloon. The sonde then comes to earth under the parachute. Somewhere in this ascent, say at around 40,000 feet, it will be, maybe, the size of a small car.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having ensured the Warhol fame of Deadhorse, Alaska, did the U.S. administration take the providential hint? Was that ever a remote possibility?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

#metoo said Justin, the Wonder Boy, the very next day, Saturday, and another \u201ccylindrical\u201d object<\/a> bit the dust in the Yukon. US and Canadian citizens had barely had a chance to sleep off the tranquillisers when another UFO appeared over Lake Huron, as if mocking both countries. F-16s, a refuelling tanker, and a AWACS aircraft were despatched. The UFOs were unsportingly varying their approach, and the F-16 pilots had trouble working out what this one looked like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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